I’ve officially added the M3 trade into my larger portfolio. I find it a much more conservative trade than the MIC in terms of risks, but strangely it should produce slightly better results, which is quite interesting. It’s also a lot less stringent on timing of adjustments and more forgiving in general. From a direct comparison to just the mechanics of the trade vs the MIC, it is a better trade overall. The edge for the MIC is my experience managing it. Either way, it’s a nice strong compliment to the MIC. The M3 is a trade John Locke developed when he was at the Sheridan mentor program. He’s since branched out on his own. It’s 10 bearish butterflies coupled with 1 long call thats DITM as to have no time value. It’s a market neutral time decay based trade. It’s got very little upside risk, and the downside adjustments usually occur when the trade is already up money and when the butterfly is close to its max value for that specific time in the trade. That’s neat.
Theoretical backtesting of the MIC in a strictly mechanical way produced an average of 3.3% a month since 2008, where the M3 produces an average of about 5% per month. However, with active management of the MIC and use of several indicators, I gather I am closer to 4%-4.5% over time.
For a neat look as to how well the M3 handles any market environment, in 2011 if you had put the trade on at the top of the market and had it on through the huge 63 point down day (what was that 8% down day?) and all the way to the bottom (~200 points??) and its subsequent rebound, the trade still came out at a win of the target 10%. That’s a resilient trade. This was managing the trade by checking only once per day at 3pm. That’s it. No intra-day adjustments besides that. Even during that 63 point down day, it was still up money.
Come September, I’ll start posting my trades and adjustments.