As of this writing, the fund is up about 27% for the year. We’re focusing mostly on campaign style complex OTM setups and left tail campaigns, however, we’re still doing opportunistic “ebb and flow” ATM trades as opportunities come up. The whipsaw environment provides for good opportunities.
We expect to end Q3 at about 40% given the timing, type and composition of the structures we’ve got on right now. They’re in a sweet spot with a load of room and much less gamma then we had in Q2 and Q1. This is assuming the market follows a similar volatility path as it has the last quarter. The goal is to end the year at about 55-60%. We surpassed 100% total returns sans fees the last quarter which represented 2 full years and 1 quarter.
The focus is always on reduction of volatility and risk to allow for better geometric returns and a focus on tail event risk mitigation. This is our main focus and how we approach trading.
It’s been a pretty standard quarter, no stress as we didn’t enter from a low to high vol environment like we did in Q1. Standard trades and standard setups. On the research front, we are looking at macro portfolio theories and concentrating on the writings of Spitznagel and Taleb but I think we’re just about fully absorbed with that information. We’re moving to setup a US facing feeder fund which is taking a lot of time, efforts and setup.
I just got back from the WSOP where I had spent a total of 3 weeks. It was a pretty decent successful trip though I did bust the main event on day 2 which always hurts the most. I don’t like my last play in the main as it wasn’t necessary given the length of levels. I had 28bb and squeeze shoved 99 from SB vs a raise and call from CO and BTN. The CO woke up with QQ and that was gg. I ended up with a 9th of 300 (a final table) in a Venetian event, a 204th of 4400 in the 800 deep stack, a 44th/1240 on the 3k NL and a 399th of 5702 on the Little one drop. My game was eons better than it was last year and I continue to study and study. I also played a Razz 1500 after minimal study just to get a feel for mixed games and because I just felt like trying something new (I’m sure it was a total punt). I plan on getting into mixed games and started studying Razz and 2-7 triple draw. I wanna be at a level where I can reasonably play tournaments in mixed by WSOP 2023. I’d love to find a coach for that.
On the travel front, I had a lot going on, I attempted to fly the plane from LA to Toronto early in June but we got stuck in Nebraska due to weather and turned around back to LV. I ended up playing a few tournaments and got that 44th, so it was a good consolation prize. We then hoped on a flight back to LA and I then drove the Urus from LA to Toronto with my two dogs and a buddy. We had two flat tires but other than that a smooth trip. We stopped in Utah, Colorado and Des Moines and made it back in 4 days. I spent a few weeks in Caledon at my house and then flew commercial back to LV for the WSOP main event. Then attempted to fly the plane back again (I still don’t have my IFR ticket) and hit weather in Chicago and had to leave the plane there until I can get back there.
Pictures of the Failed trip to Toronto
The first stop was Lake Powell and landed at the famous Page airport. What beautiful terrain.
Finally here is the start of the bad weather that forced us to turn around in the other direction.