For the income portion: I’ve been doing equal parts HS3EZ, 488 and 484 along with an ATM campaign leaning bearish. This helps provide a lot of diversification.
For the convexity portion: I’ve been doing BSH factory + opportunistic entries of additional black swan insurance (haven’t had to since Feb).
I’ve just started using a base LTI as well
Pretty boring, pretty simple. I’ve found now that I rarely care or even look at what the market is doing. I just enter and add adjustments when required. The first quarter was great and so far April is pretty stagnant but with a lot of potential and I’ve got a solid formed campaign both for the income and convexity portions as well as live LTI. Looking good into finishing Q2. That 48x theta has to come in sometime.
That’s pretty much the summation of how I’ve been running trades through the year. Very boring weekly entries of 48x and HS3EZ plus the management of the convex black swan portfolio. Systematic with intent and with little regard to timing of markets re entries and adjustments. It works.
The intent is to continue to investigate variants and other trades that provide some diversification to the portfolio but I haven’t had anything really pop out. I’ve got some interest in the 0DTE and looking at it from a professional gambling standpoint re edges and trade sizing but I just haven’t had the ability to jump in yet. Probably a summer thing. I will probably finish up a 486 backtest to add to the research. That’s probably all that’s on my radar.
I can’t go into the individual trade compositions because of community privacy etc but you can get more information at the mastermind group, Ron Bertino runs a few awesome well constructed courses there and the community you can become part of is a private one where we share info and strategies and as such we’re mandated to keep specific details private as it’s not fair to others in the group.
Been pretty absent from posting which has obviously become a habit. I’ve been all over the place the last 3 months and I think the lack of routine affects my ability to get posting which is contrary to the blogs intent especially with the travel portion. I just get caught up in new experiences and get behind in other aspects and my life becomes a time-balancing act but a well balanced one in regards to life and work balance.
We had flew into the US in October of 2020 to begin flight training and take possession of our plane. Exciting in and of itself, but probably a bit irresponsible given the pandemic was full blown at the time but we were committed with our long term renters in Cayman coming in at the same time. Cayman had no local transmission (and it was totally normal life there) so it was a pretty iffy decision, is what it is. We had expected to finish up the PPL there before Christmas but weather and thanksgiving instructor schedules got in the way and we weren’t able to finish so we left Dec 9th to get the quarantine over with before Christmas holidays.. As fate would have it, that didn’t matter, Canada went into full lockdown during the holidays
It was pretty exciting though because we took possession of our new home which has such an epic design and quality. Karin Bohn helped with the interior design, and subsequently the project got all over her YouTube channel which was pretty cool and my good friend Chris designed and helped build it. He put his heart and soul into it and it shows. I don’t think I could ever sell it. We had started planning the house back in 2016 as we’d planned on staying in Cayman and having a great home base in Caledon, Ontario which was near all our families but plans had changed with respect to where we’d school our children and LA became the choice. We’ve rented our house in Cayman and now will just go back and forth between Canada and LA. Anyways, we stayed there till about March when we went back to LA (with the intent of staying 2 weeks) to start searching for our primary home (we found an awesome house/project in Hidden Hills), but opportunities arose to finish the PPL in Knoxville, Cirrus went and picked up my plane and I flew to Knoxville to train. I ended up staying behind and trying to finish up that pesky PPL while Ash went back with the kids to Canada. I finally solo’d and made a ton of headway towards the license. We’ve done the training pretty unorthodox as we’ve used the plane several times for utility trips (picking up au pairs, family, flying to various places for $100 hamburgers etc). So I’ve gained experience in so many different ways. Here’s some photos of the training and solo.
While in Knoxville, I got the vaccine (Pfizer) and worked hard on the PPL which went really well. Had some incredible experiences. I flew with my instructor to pick up the family in Canada. The original intent was to go back in April but the pandemic in Canada got so bad that it just wasn’t worth staying. So we grabbed them, whisked them away from the never-ending lockdowns and explosion in COVID cases and brought them to Knoxville for a week. Here’s some photos of the Canada pick-up, the dogs were excited to see me (oh that was another new thing this quarter, we got them in January, I was afraid they’d forgotten about me but from Teddy’s reaction here, it was clearly not the case.
We stayed in Pigeonforge and I got to fly back and forth to Knoxville for training and finally solo’d and was about 10 days away from check ride, but we had closed on the house in Hidden Hills so we went there for a few weeks (here now). Another cool experience, I got to fly the dogs and cat to LA from Knoxville. Wild. Here’s some pics from the super long cross country from Knoxville to LA
Teddy in the back, chilling.
We’re in LA now until about June (assuming Canada gets better). Then we’ll be back in September full time. Whirl wind of a life lately. Looking forward to settling down where I am just making my way back and forth between the two houses. But have to say, I’m loving this neighbourhood and the general area. The kids are live in school (finally) and we’re looking forward to the big life change from the Caribbean to western civilisation.
Here’s a few photos of the new neighbourhood plus a cool sketch/art of the project.
Despite all this wildness in life, the quarter was great, doing 15.78%. Finally moved towards non-discretionary trades and by March, was fully allocated. Throughout the quarter I furthered some research efforts into ‘meta-portfolio’ construction and the movement toward a more time and skew-diversified approach with respect to my individual trades. The sum of these individual trade types within the total portfolio of trades allows for a smoothing of variance which allows for better compounding of returns over time. I’m thinking long term, and I am approaching my portfolio of trades with wealth conservation and low-risk growth as the primary objectives. The result and implementation of lowered volatility by way of diversification will yield a better compounding of returns over the course of years. I am lowering the volatility tax, and in turn raising the profitability of the portfolio of trades. In my opinion, compounding via the reduction of portfolio variance is the true secret to beating the markets. A high volatility portfolio that averages 15% per year could underperform a very low volatility portfolio that averages 10% a year over the course of a few years. Taking this concept and applying it to the portfolio of trades is the focus and part of the edge.
Didn’t get as much as I wanted done because …Holidays and distractions… enough said 🙂 Despite that, I’ve hit the ground running and I am working on creating some meta portfolio management which I mentioned in my last post. The idea is to really take advantage of diversification across strategies that aren’t correlated to create a combined time series that provides increased geometric returns by way of lower drawdowns and better compounding. What Mark Spitznagel coined as a volatility tax. We reduce that and pay less “tax”. If you have a lower return each month but you have less draw down, you compound it better than a higher more volatile strategy and so on. To me, it’s all you can do, diversify (smartly) and not just for the sake of diversification but true meaningful diversification. I wouldn’t ever just put all my eggs in one single strategy in one single week with a planned capital the size of my portfolio. There’s just too much reliance on how those specific strikes and BSH will react. Plus, it’s sorta fun having previous entries mature and act as mid bear hedges, harvesting and knowing that a single entry with bad timing is only 1/10th (well really 1/30th) the portfolio is a nice thing. It takes time to build up sure but it’s like 2.5 months. Who cares.
There’s a series of OTM (out of the money) type strategies (3 of them that I use) combined with a bearish toned ATM (at the money) trade to pick up the middle bear (non crashy moves ie Aug 2019, Oct 2018, Dec 2018, Jan 2016). Each of the OTM income portion is diversified in mostly its strikes but also the type of BSH it uses to pick up during a crash. A 488 will react differently then a 484+BSH then a HS3EZ (not saying I use those well, maybe idiosyncratic versions of one or more of those) both in it’s income production and income engine as well as its black swan hedge that it utilises. There’s some diversification, it’s not perfect but we work to reduce that imperfection by time diversification across 10 week campaigns (1/10th at a time) along with 3 additional BSH/Vol hedge type campaigns. The 3 BSH vol hedge type campaigns are factory based (ie they build up over time) and they are meant as a triple redundancy insurance towards the 4 other income strategies. But in reality, they should produce lotto like returns in a crash. One of the BSH/Vol type hedges actually generates income and helps compensate the costs of the other two. We then have as much redundancy as we possibly can both in the income strategies by way of time, strike/skew diversification, and BSH diversification built within the income strategy plus we have 3 additional BSH like stand-alone factory type strategies that should provide full assurance during a a crash and most likely a lotto return. Not sure you can do much more than that.
It’s systematic and the fact that you’ve got 10 different things to manage reduce human factors at a cost of management complexity which is my job anyways.
Speaking of which, I feel lucky to have found something that I wake up looking forward to and what will likely occupy the rest of my working life. I doubt in my life that I’ll ever pursue entrepreneurial projects again. I went through my 20s and 30s setting up some successful businesses w/ my wife and two other partners that I still manage (mostly as a board member). I give over-arching direction and make sure things are running in line with the plans set forth but there’s no day-to-day which set me free. We started the business in 2004 and I finally got out of the day-to-day around 2017. I just never liked dealing with humans and human issues in the workplace. It gets complex quickly and is often irrational and I feel just out of control when dealing with human resources. I know that’s super odd to say but maybe I can expand on it. I started a software company and I am not a software developer. Maybe that helps 🙂 I have to rely on my team to correctly advise me while making business decisions and dealing with customers demands while having an expertise that was relevant but outside the central operation of the business. Make decisions, go back to team, they tell you impossible, you know it is possible but can’t be quite sure because your experts are advising you and you fight and they end up getting it done /// rinse repeat. I always wanted my “money making” life to be me and a screen and that’s it. Very few outside “human” variables, very little reliance on anything but myself, my decision and the game environment we call the market. When something went wrong, it was something that was on me. Something that I could perhaps think my way out of. Not something where I had to rely on someone else. That was my goal and though it took like 5 years to really work that out (trading is hard…mostly because you have to meet parts of yourself that you might be unfamiliar with…and protecting yourself from yourself takes practice and time..and really just a system and recognition).
In my opinion, the attributes (besides the obvious skills) necessary for successfully trading is self reflection/humility, ability to take risks and tenacity. If you lack one of those, it ain’t going to happen. The risk taking portion has to be smart, unemotional and well thought out..with outs and with a system. One thing I’ve learned in life and I’ve seen it time and time again is that you can’t talk many people out of taking risks when they’ve become emotional about it. I can list like 10 situations which made me cringe and are very poignant lessons, some are horrible. It’s a specific type of person too. If someone decides that they are going to gamble, take a business risk, buy a stock, or whatever it is that has a possibility of changing their life trajectory, I found that it’s often very hard to talk someone out of that risk even if you give them good reasons. .Once they make an emotional decision, that’s it. But, if someone is humble and self reflective you can often advise them against and they back off and reflect. If you do take that risk, you need outs and you need to become tenacious (that’s where tenacity comes in). I took loads of risks in my 20s that I should never have, and now I have a process that protects me from making emotional decisions…I did have that tenacity though and the risks weren’t emotional though they were probably way to high a risk of ruin. Unfortunately, for success, you often really need the ability to take risk, you just can’t do it with emotional baggage. When I took those risks, I’d be like fuck ok…I’m in it now, then I’d create outs and I would literally not stop (sacrifice sleep (80 hr weeks) to make these risks work out. Stupid but tenacity got me out of jams and I learned that we often take risks for excitement, for that dopamine rush and to be very mindful of that. This is why you often can’t talk someone out of an emotional risk, they have already decided they need this rush this thing that can change their life (or destroy it) because they need to feel. When you do take a big risk, make sure you have control, several “outs” and be ready to commit your entire being to making sure you don’t fail. Tenacity, Risk-taking and Humility are the key ingredients. Look at the logo on my plane tail. Badger (Tenacious little fucks).
On to personal stuff, I got up in the air twice so far since being back (quarantine affected that). What a wild experience though, we flew to Muskoka (took 24 min from Brampton), then over to Toronto to do a fly over of the city. We asked the tower to do a direct fly over of YYZ (the busiest airspace in Canada) and was approved. This is a once in a lifetime thing to do…it was EERIE cool. Not a single flight (landing or take-off) and completely empty. Here’s some pics. I’d write a whole lot more on the blog re what it’s like to do a PPL in a Cirrus SR22 if anyone had interest. I just don’t want to bore.
Made my way to our new temporary home for the winter and spring. The place will be our forever home in Canada and act as our main base. We still are trying to figure out if we’re going to make our way to LA for the kids education but we’re getting tired after this last build and move so who knows. That said, I miss how easy things were in Cayman, it was like a free-for-all in terms of pretty much anything/everything re being able to just live life. I am met with blocks on everything here in Canada. Everyone seems to want to create problems. It’s bizarre. They won’t even accept my international license or cayman license and want me to start off with a learners permit, they’re having a fucking laugh. I’ll just continue to use my Cayman license, just means I can’t register my cars until I can find some Canadian insurance company that would insure me without a CAD license. I also find myself talking on the phone to customer support for hours a day for a variety of things as well. Real life sucks apparently lol.
We’re here until at least the summer and though we’re 90% going to LA, there’s a small chance we’ll fall in love with this property and stay here. Though, man, I just don’t know if I can “regular” life it here like I said above. It’s probably irrational but there’s a lot of weird feelings about raising the kids here and I mean, its fucking’ cold. Though, having the plane now gives me some pretty cool options to escape and the hangar is literally 12 min from my house. I can fly to Myrtle beach in like 3.2 hours for instance. The property is 100 acres located just 25 min from Toronto international. So the location is perfect and close to the international airport and acts as a great base to our families (we’re both from area originally and our families are here). That was the intent…have a second home near our families but it became much much more than that as the project developed and the budget increased…..
One of my best friends designed and built it same as he did for Cayman so it’s been a fun challenging project and his tenacity for efficiency, his skills and his ability to keep the project a value creation device has allowed for a valuation much higher than what was put in. So I am super happy and both projects have provided me with value. He’s been actively helping me manage investments so it might be his pièce de ré·sis·tance or swan song as he moves more towards trading. Or perhaps he continues on but treats it like a hobby or it’s a bit of both. Who knows. Here’s a few cool pictures of the property (which isn’t 100% complete yet but liveable). It’s got a VR/Sim room which will be decked out with a star wall, RGB lights, and 4 setups (our family are PC gamers…no XBOX whatever or PS whatever allowed in here!). We have a sweet swimmable hot-tub on the second deck, an infra-red sauna, several cool fireplaces, a speak-easy etc. It turned into a true chalet like experience. Our furniture hasn’t yet arrived but I think it’ll be here in 1.5 weeks. We’re making due with what we have, it’s exciting because so much is not done and we’ve got limited furniture so it’ll only get better. Fun and frustrating at the same time I guess.
We landed in CNC3 a few weeks ago and hangared the plane. I still need some more hours but the weather has been shit and instructor availability as well. Things happened slower then I hoped. I really wanted to come back licensed fully.
The entire break I’ve been concentrating on meta portfolio construction as a means to reduce drawdown and increase geometric returns. I’ve come up with using 3-4 OTM style trades that we talk about in the PMTT Group as a base income producer and with my own spins and each are composed of 4 different types of BSH. These are put on in campaign style with the average being about 10 weeks of campaign. This gives time diversification. So we’re now diversified in entry timing, OTM income production and BSH provision. On top of this, I combine 2 black swan type campaigns that provide additional protection over all. Then I have an aggressive harvesting style that really translates into back ratios at a variety of strikes on older maturing trades. So basically, 10 different time entries, 4 different strategies, 4 different BSH styles, a bonus 2 hedge type factories and harvesting. About as tight as you can get.
4 Types of Out-of-the-money income strategies put on across 10 weeks giving time, strike(skew) diversification
4 Types of BSH protection put on across 10 weeks giving time, strike (skew) diversification
2 bonus types of BSH factories/hedges put on in campaign style across 4-6 weeks giving skew and time diversification and 2 additional fail safe swan protections
Harvesting aggressively all structures that are matured
You’re left with creating less draw down and increasing compounding returns which is equally important to the trade strategy itself. It add complexity sure, but I mean, this is all I really do now and it’s systematic. That’s a preferred method for me.
I’m finalising all the time series for each of the campaigns from 2014+ and I’ve noted that there is adequate response differences to a variety of environments and together they provide a smoothing of return. In my mind and as I mature as a trader and as I have started getting consistent results, I’m convinced that the key to success at trading for a living comes with diversification both in time and in strategy. You take 6 known alpha producers and you do 1/6th each. It helps with human factors, as you’re much more likely to follow the system/rules if it’s just some annoying small part of the portfolio not the entire thing. The options market has a funny way of causing you to draw down from the tops.. You’ll be sitting at 80% profit target and one day you’ll draw down to 50% for no reason (market hasn’t moved) and you’re becoming price fixated and often times it does preclude a vol event and from there you’re just waiting for that old 80% to come back because you think you can rely on time. It’s a fools errand not to follow the systems and rules. You’re much more likely to do what you need to do if it’s just a 1/6-1/8th portion of your portfolio.
As mentioned before, the last 6 months have been pretty much straight opportunistic ebb-flow ATM style trades taking advantage of the environment. I’ve just started implementing a systematic portfolio based on the above post and from there that’s all I’ll pretty much do.
I am back at my desk for 8 months so I hope to blog more and post interesting things the best I can.
Been a long time since I posted which seems typical of my behaviour with this blog. A lots been happening, I just left Cayman enroute to Canada where we’re moving into our newly built house (will post about that separately, it’s pretty damn cool too!) but we made a month long pit-stop in KTYS (Knoxville) to pick up a tool that would help me with one part of this blog, traveling. I bought a plane.
Ashley and I both had nearly completed our PPL back in 2008 but had to leave urgently right (like literally a week) before our Check-out ride to Cayman. We had intended on coming back within a month to get it done but we just never did and then we had kids…andddd that was that. We hadn’t picked it up again until now because it was just impossible in Cayman. Anyway, we ended up purchasing an SR22T Cirrus which is one of the safest prop planes out there, it has its own parachute system (entire plane) and the automation is astounding. It’s fully autopilot and has synthetic vision, live traffic, weather on board etc.
Cirrus has been amazing to deal with, literally one of the best companies I’ve ever dealt with. They came (for free) to pick us up in the Vision Jet because we were sorta stranded in Cayman due to it being Covid free and being locked down to the rest of the world. My rep finagled it by calling it a demo. The normal protocol is that they’ll come pick you up in an SR22 (one person) and bring you to Knoxville to take delivery. In this case, they picked us all up and in the SF50 Vision G2 Jet.
That was a blast. Maybe or maybe not – am I trying to build up experience and hours to get into one of those lol. A bit of a dream.
The other thing, Cirrus just started a PPL program and we’re the first students to partake. We’re here in Knoxville for a month training every day in our plane which is pretty cool. We’re less than a week away from Solo. In our off time, we’ve been mostly hiking and enjoying the outdoors since in Cayman, we were quite limited to just the beach.
We started off flying the club plane (because our delivery was Nov 18th). I have some slight PTSD from the training. So the call sign 8-6 Mike Juliette brings me some pits in my stomach. The instructor was extremely tough on us.
During training one day, we landed and saw our plane had made it to KTYS (Knoxville) for prepping before delivery. Got a snapshot before they put it away.
Here’s some delivery day photos. What a day. It really was like 10 years in the making. The original plans we had in our 20s was to become pilots and live that freedom. Just life and kids got in the way. Now with the kids in distance/home school there was no better time to dedicate a month to training and eventually instrument rating in the winter to finally be able to cross country. The thing is damn fast and has a great range. 1000nm (~2000 km) and boots at 187-200 kts. It can go to 25k feet too and is equipped with oxygen and FIKI systems.
Here’s our first Cross country (Ash flew there and I flew back)
As for trades,
I pretty much de-risked into the elections and was mostly ATM trades. I’ve added 10-20% sizing in the last week or two but am looking towards eventually setting up a 488 campaign now that we’re out of high vol. I did put on some Feb ATM SPX trades and I am playing with similar BWB setups in TSLA (given the recent momentum move up and iv spiking again). So I’ll be looking for opportunities in 488 and BSH factory build up as well as dabbling in ATM. That’s about it.
I am >30% for the year and happy that I’ll probably hit 40% for 2020 and move on to a more stabilised systematic approach in 2021.
A nice pop in the p/l given the US is contemplating giving up on those pesky elections. Who needs them 🙂 Delta sitting comfortably at -800 and given the DTE, any moves towards -200 delta and I’ll just start peeling off the trade piece by piece removing risk as I go.
Sep BWBs are currently going for about 95c credit and Oct BWBs are going for about 2.25c. I’ve got loads of flies up in Sep so I can purchase BWBs against those but I didn’t get any in Oct yet so I’d have some exposure to downside if I get some of the Octs on. Not terrible given the deltas I’ve got built up in Sep so I’ll probably put some on today. Usually I like to start with the flies. It’s no different than just entering a rhino/bwb though which loads of people do without the fly hedge/combo.
It’d be a huge milestone to close the Aug at 500k P/L. It’ll call for some real nice champagne. But I won’t fixate on it, I’ll just manage that risk. Huge month so far and I think July is sitting at just over 7% P/L and Aug will likely be similar. Cannot complain and thankful the market keeps on giving.
Had a 30% year last year and I gather I’ll get towards 50-60% this year solely from the opportunities. The last few months, I’ve just been concentrating solely on building that long vol BSH up and trading these Rhino/BWB combos but it rarely takes much more than 30min a day, things are boring when they are producing. Many traders say you’ve made it and are barking up the right tree when you’re trading a system thus eliminating human factors and bias and subsequently the actual act of trading becomes boring. The latter part is true right now, the former isn’t based on a system per say but it will be once this environment ends.
We ended Friday at a delta of -900 after adjustments and now sit around -1700. That shows you just how quickly negative delta you get with time even just the weekend. The position is hovering around 285k P/L so it’s seen an increase of 35k over the weekend. I’ll have to adjust the upside today and by Thursday this will be done with removals from the structure rather than additions to it. There is 25 days to expiration and I’ll aim to remove risks as we go from here until it’s a benign structure that can be expired.
Here’s an update on my big August trade that has about two weeks left in it. It’s starting to actually look like an old school ATM trade given the reduction in VIX and the lack of credits in 30 DTE or earlier trades. From March till June, credits were huge and upside risk NIL. Now as opposed to then, I actually have to use some upside adjustments aggressively.
I started adjusting for upside exposure during this little fall towards 3200. My overall deltas are sitting at -900 and I’ll close out the day at that.
The position represents 5MM in planned capital and is sitting at 251k profit. I’ll dance this thing into Aug 7/8th and continuously remove risk and adjust. There’s a small chance for an extremely large payoff (the biggest I’ve ever seen) @ 1MM in 1 month. Reminds me of that show 2months 2million. Ridiculous but it is the environment and the opportunities. These types of trades won’t last. For now, I’ll happily let it beef up the account. I’ve got BS protection in case we have some sort of massive gap down.
Here’s the trade looking forward 7 days
Here it is where I expect to close it. It won’t look like this later as I’ll be constantly adjusting back and forth between now and then and the negative deltas will continue to build up as time passes
For a bit there, the VIX hit around 24 and it looked like the ebb and flow trade was about to get a lot harder but today we can now get a Sep BWB for $1.00 credit. So we’re still going for now 🙂 I got some on to offset the Sep position which I started with symmetric flies back at 3260-3270. I’ll be very happy if we can keep getting these conditions for the next 6 months.
In a large fall, and if we approach -400 delta, I’ll start to adjust for the downside and I’ll offset with some way OTM calendars in case of a bounce. I have two trading weeks left for Aug position which will get more and more negative delta and have more and more protection to the downside. If I am forced to adjust for downside next week, it means we went through 3150 area and to offset the nuance of continuously increasing negative deltas, I’ll use some way OTM calendars for upside protection while adjusting for the asymmetric risks on the downside.
I gotta say, I feel kinda lucky that I was also able to start the September position, I wasn’t sure I’d be getting the same opportunities with BWB pricing. Perhaps this continues on for the rest of the year re elections in Nov. Eventually I will move on to a 488 campaign, BSH factory, TAA and ATM at lower PC.
I’m hitting (well above) negative delta limits on my current Aug ATM trade and am looking at ways to reduce it now that July expiration is over and that was providing me some positive deltas. It’ll get more and more negative delta as it progresses into the month so I’ll deal with it daily and continuously raise up that Upper expiration line. This trade represents a planned capital of 5,000,000.
I had the deltas in line a week ago but the reduction in vol and time passing has brought them quickly out of line. The BWBs in August are no longer giving a credit but would give some positive deltas and theta/risk. I think I’ll save those for a larger down day. We’re down about 0.75% today so I’ll have to start looking at PCS maybe even some call structures (call calendars or call BWB). I haven’t had to do that yet post crash as the bwb credits were sufficient in raising that UEL and eliminating upside risks.
I am looking at 3325 calendars, 3250 calendars (mixed) along with a 11 delta 75 wide PCS and I’ve already got some long ES to temp hedge.
So yeah, let’s go over the Aug position:
It is at -1450 or so delta and has pretty significant upside risk to the already existing profit of $125k. So we have to do something. We do benefit from vol release on up moves but it’s not enough. I’d like to get it down to about -700.
Here’s the trade looking forward 14 days
We’ve got massive theta, great risk reward if we get our deltas in-line and decent non-black swan downside risk profile. The previous expirations (from May till now) were a lot easier on the upside so this one will be a bit trickier.