A nice pop in the p/l given the US is contemplating giving up on those pesky elections. Who needs them 🙂 Delta sitting comfortably at -800 and given the DTE, any moves towards -200 delta and I’ll just start peeling off the trade piece by piece removing risk as I go.
Sep BWBs are currently going for about 95c credit and Oct BWBs are going for about 2.25c. I’ve got loads of flies up in Sep so I can purchase BWBs against those but I didn’t get any in Oct yet so I’d have some exposure to downside if I get some of the Octs on. Not terrible given the deltas I’ve got built up in Sep so I’ll probably put some on today. Usually I like to start with the flies. It’s no different than just entering a rhino/bwb though which loads of people do without the fly hedge/combo.
It’d be a huge milestone to close the Aug at 500k P/L. It’ll call for some real nice champagne. But I won’t fixate on it, I’ll just manage that risk. Huge month so far and I think July is sitting at just over 7% P/L and Aug will likely be similar. Cannot complain and thankful the market keeps on giving.
Had a 30% year last year and I gather I’ll get towards 50-60% this year solely from the opportunities. The last few months, I’ve just been concentrating solely on building that long vol BSH up and trading these Rhino/BWB combos but it rarely takes much more than 30min a day, things are boring when they are producing. Many traders say you’ve made it and are barking up the right tree when you’re trading a system thus eliminating human factors and bias and subsequently the actual act of trading becomes boring. The latter part is true right now, the former isn’t based on a system per say but it will be once this environment ends.
We ended Friday at a delta of -900 after adjustments and now sit around -1700. That shows you just how quickly negative delta you get with time even just the weekend. The position is hovering around 285k P/L so it’s seen an increase of 35k over the weekend. I’ll have to adjust the upside today and by Thursday this will be done with removals from the structure rather than additions to it. There is 25 days to expiration and I’ll aim to remove risks as we go from here until it’s a benign structure that can be expired.
Here’s an update on my big August trade that has about two weeks left in it. It’s starting to actually look like an old school ATM trade given the reduction in VIX and the lack of credits in 30 DTE or earlier trades. From March till June, credits were huge and upside risk NIL. Now as opposed to then, I actually have to use some upside adjustments aggressively.
I started adjusting for upside exposure during this little fall towards 3200. My overall deltas are sitting at -900 and I’ll close out the day at that.
The position represents 5MM in planned capital and is sitting at 251k profit. I’ll dance this thing into Aug 7/8th and continuously remove risk and adjust. There’s a small chance for an extremely large payoff (the biggest I’ve ever seen) @ 1MM in 1 month. Reminds me of that show 2months 2million. Ridiculous but it is the environment and the opportunities. These types of trades won’t last. For now, I’ll happily let it beef up the account. I’ve got BS protection in case we have some sort of massive gap down.
Here’s the trade looking forward 7 days
Here it is where I expect to close it. It won’t look like this later as I’ll be constantly adjusting back and forth between now and then and the negative deltas will continue to build up as time passes
For a bit there, the VIX hit around 24 and it looked like the ebb and flow trade was about to get a lot harder but today we can now get a Sep BWB for $1.00 credit. So we’re still going for now 🙂 I got some on to offset the Sep position which I started with symmetric flies back at 3260-3270. I’ll be very happy if we can keep getting these conditions for the next 6 months.
In a large fall, and if we approach -400 delta, I’ll start to adjust for the downside and I’ll offset with some way OTM calendars in case of a bounce. I have two trading weeks left for Aug position which will get more and more negative delta and have more and more protection to the downside. If I am forced to adjust for downside next week, it means we went through 3150 area and to offset the nuance of continuously increasing negative deltas, I’ll use some way OTM calendars for upside protection while adjusting for the asymmetric risks on the downside.
I gotta say, I feel kinda lucky that I was also able to start the September position, I wasn’t sure I’d be getting the same opportunities with BWB pricing. Perhaps this continues on for the rest of the year re elections in Nov. Eventually I will move on to a 488 campaign, BSH factory, TAA and ATM at lower PC.
I’m hitting (well above) negative delta limits on my current Aug ATM trade and am looking at ways to reduce it now that July expiration is over and that was providing me some positive deltas. It’ll get more and more negative delta as it progresses into the month so I’ll deal with it daily and continuously raise up that Upper expiration line. This trade represents a planned capital of 5,000,000.
I had the deltas in line a week ago but the reduction in vol and time passing has brought them quickly out of line. The BWBs in August are no longer giving a credit but would give some positive deltas and theta/risk. I think I’ll save those for a larger down day. We’re down about 0.75% today so I’ll have to start looking at PCS maybe even some call structures (call calendars or call BWB). I haven’t had to do that yet post crash as the bwb credits were sufficient in raising that UEL and eliminating upside risks.
I am looking at 3325 calendars, 3250 calendars (mixed) along with a 11 delta 75 wide PCS and I’ve already got some long ES to temp hedge.
So yeah, let’s go over the Aug position:
It is at -1450 or so delta and has pretty significant upside risk to the already existing profit of $125k. So we have to do something. We do benefit from vol release on up moves but it’s not enough. I’d like to get it down to about -700.
Here’s the trade looking forward 14 days
We’ve got massive theta, great risk reward if we get our deltas in-line and decent non-black swan downside risk profile. The previous expirations (from May till now) were a lot easier on the upside so this one will be a bit trickier.
Given the events of February/March 2020, I had to re-evaluate risk and its presentation in each of the components of my portfolio. Though it was beneficial to add what I consider a god level data point for backtesting purposes, it was not fun to go through. It was the fastest decline and recovery in history. There is no tougher environment to trade through with complex non-directional options strategies. I ended up positive through the event despite the fact that things were broken in the market structure. Things happened that should not have happened. I saw things that I am sure I’ll never see again. This allows me to reconsider risk through what was one of the most market destabilizing events in history. This breaking of various markets and market components has given me a peek into what was naked when the tide left and allowed me to dig deep into my compositions and fine tune with risk management as the main motive. It motivated me to create a systematic approach to my base trades for entries, exits and adjustments. It took 4 months of hard work, but I’ve designed a system that accomplishes all of the risk management goals while maintaining returns that will compound better than before due to the reduced drawdowns. The key to this is maintaining global convexity despite being locally concave in risk profile. This means that risk where it is defined and quantifiable (local risk) while maintaining/financing the ownership of global convex risk on the tails. Short locally and long globally.
The more variant a portfolio is the more it impacts your geometric return. I have an edge, but if I am in extended drawdown, there’s less capital exposed to that edge. The less you draw down the higher your geometric return. It’s the power of compounding and is what Mark Spitznagel calls the volatility tax. The big losses are all that matters to your rate of compounding. Makes sense right? Manage your risks, maintain an edge and let compounding do its magic.
My primary interest lies in the long volatility tail space and coupling that with localized complex option income production. Globally convex locally concave. The long volatility tail portion of the my portfolio closely corresponds to what Universa, Nasim Taleb and Mark Spitznagel research, it’s a convex payout on extreme market events. When you tie in global convexity (extreme payoffs in extreme events) think of the convex shape (shown below) with local concavity (necessary for regular income production), you end up with the best of both worlds. Absolute protection and income production on the tails (which are rare) coupled with regular income production locally.
The composition of both elements in the options space has benefits that are astounding as it not only gives you capital during turmoil but it protects both a traditional portfolio as well as one composed of options. You prevent event draw downs and have made significant returns that can be actioned at market bottoms. That effect is exceptional. The combination of long vol with a traditional income strategy is what allows for the highest geometric return profiles.
Coupled with the long vol tail hedge, I’ve worked on systematizing the income strategies that are completely mechanical in nature. There is no room for human bias. I worked out a mechanical system that has no decision bias in both the long vol component as well as the income production component. It prevents the human factors issues that can cause mistakes and under performance.
We’ve got so many great data sets now, we’ve got the vol events of Aug 2019, the bear shocks of Oct and Dec 2018, the volmageddon of 2018, the time skew issues of Aug 2017, Aug 2015, Jan 2016 and so on. We’ve got a plethora of data. The period from February to June of 2020 used this data to do a deep dive into restructuring the portfolio and analyzing its risk factors. It was long, arduous and sometimes frustrating when you realize that everything has risk and the only true way to eliminate or minimize is by true diversification.
The lock down forced me to work long hours daily to re-evaluate my systems and to fine tune a new system setup. This was a period of heavy backtesting, reading, daily hour long phone call discussions with a trade buddy, trials, and analytics. I left no stone unturned even exploring things I would normally say was trade style heresy. The main discovery is the need for systematized approach in all base core strategies. The management is systematically rules based. My entire portfolio will follow this tenant. It’s a minimization of human factors. As Jerry Parker puts it :
“We are not really interested in people who are experts at the french stock market or german bond markets due to technical nature of trading…it does not take a huge monster infrastructure: neither Harvard MBAs nor people from Goldman Sachs…I would hate if it the success of Chesapeake was based on my being some great genius. It’s the system that wins., Fundamental economics are nice but useless in trading. True Fundamentals are always unknown. Our system allows for no intellectual capability.” Jerry Parker
Related to the above statement, I’ve had a realization to systematically use quantitative analysis and trend indicators to manage trades with respect to risk, entries and exits. QA gives me a way to manage the trade risks systematically while keeping me on the right side of the market trend, it’s what the university endowments use and it’s what Jerry Parker helped systematize in the 80s and 90s. I am using it to err the trades in the direction where the sum of the quantitative analysis points us. The delta adjustment range is -3 to +3 per unit. If it’s a bearish trend, we’ll keep it in the -3 range and if it’s a bullish trend we’ll keep it in the +3 range. Lastly, it lets us know when to exit trades. If we use Vix/Vix3M ratios, force index, OBV, ATR expansion etc we can avoid every major event in the last 10 years. I have now incorporated mandatory exit signals. If the signals do not show and we have a black swan, that is protected as well because of our long vol component.
It’s important to have a system that removes emotions and biased decisions. It removes human factors and that gives you something that’s concrete and sustainable. Decisions cause fatigue especially when tied to large money. Through the lock down, I tried investigating several things with an open mind, including taking advantage of zero day premium trades (PR hedgies) and cycle indications trades. This led me to making polarized decisions on an hourly basis. That’s not sustainable, it’ll exhaust and it’ll burn out. It solidified my requirement for a systematic rules based core portfolio. You can adjust/fine tune the rules but you cannot disobey them once they are live.
Been a while, I should have kept posting through the whole event. I am up about 20% on the year which is decent given the events and given several mistakes I made. I’ve since revised how and what I do in my process and can only be thankful I ended up positive through-out.
Bizarrely, I was super in-tune with the whole virus thing back in late January as the first reports were coming out of China. By early Feb, I had got out of my entire standard equities portfolio (TAA –Tactical Asset Portfolio blend) and purchased 400 long puts ~ $1.00-$2.00 in anticipation of some volatility thinking I caught it earlier than the market. The market just kept going up and up and up until Feb 24. I had no real OTM trades on and had built up some long-vol portions but the nuances of en-cashing was where my regret lies.
On Feb 28th, I started cashing out of those 400 long puts which took a beating through the mid part of February. Had I kept them on till March 24th they’d have been worth millions. Just before that, on the 27th, with the VVIX spiking the highest since Feb 2018, I also started opportunistic OTM trades that got annihilated despite being hedged with Black swan hedges. A poorly timed entry, every indicator was flashing off so I should have waited for a bottom signal before entering but at the time I figured that the virus news would cause a more lengthy decline with several bounces in-between so I figured I could get in and out using vol relief on the bounces to capture profits. I was wrong. The mess lasted till Mid March and lost a bundle but was offset by my long-vol and BSHs. Though, I did take a pretty big temporary hit on mark-to-market throughout. Anyways, to go back a bit, on the bounce in early March, I picked up another 450 long puts at 1800 for $3.00 and I was going to convert into a BSH factory but the market collapsed almost immediately after I bought them (lucky). So I followed the trend down converting slowly into fully formed BSH and used them to hedge off the OTM trades. I was keeping that left tail popped up. By the end of it all, the combo was green and all was fine.
In Mid March, I started using OTM calendars on bounces as an income capture. As well, to offset the long vol hedge that was incredibly negative theta positive vega until I got a signal to encash, I started selling 5-7 DTE puts in ES after-hours at ridiculous prices whenever they came up and used that against my long-vol (calenderizing the long vol hedge that was 90 DTE). This all worked out really well and I was able to capture some really ridiculous pricing. I saw 1000 SPX puts going for like $10 I am pretty sure.
By April, I started doing BWB ATM trades on dips for large credit (usually they are $4 debit!) with 40 DTE. On bounces, I’d add symmetric flies. I’d rinse repeat this in a nice ratio to maintain decent profile and am still doing this now.
I’ve become a fan of using trend indicators for risk management and that’s where my interests lie right now. In this environment, I’m setting my portfolio to be mostly locally concave with respect to selling premium (ATM income trades) yet my overall portfolio will be global convexity (long vol). I won’t sell asymmetric risk rather I’ll own it by using some BSH type factories and some usage of OTM strangles and I’ll sell more defined risk upfront with ATM type strategies. It’s the environment we’re in and with the credits (removing upside risks) in the BWBs, it makes management much easier.
Since I am doing my own blend of things I can probably start posting more risk profiles and trades so I’ll start doing that.
Total from Jan 2 2019 to Jan 15 2020 : 37.43% on total balance.
During the last 6 months, I’ve spent probably 6 hours a day (when I am not traveling :P) trying to design the most diligent portfolio of trades that I can. I am basing it on the tenant that a series of well diversified trades or portfolio compositions will provide a better risk adjusted return that in turns lowers my variance and stress and keeps my humanity out of it. Not only does it reduce variance and risk but it has a positive affect on human factors (the humanity part). If you have 10% of your account in a single strategy, you’ll be less apt to get cognitive bias and other negative human attributes involved. I am sure everyone has experienced that before, when you’re in an ATM options trade and you’re at an adjustment point but the technicals all point to oversold and you want to wait for a bounce to adjust, yet it doesn’t bounce? Yeah, that’s human factors. You realize you fucked up so now you’re looking for an opportunity to adjust and emotions get involved. I’ve been there. The V of 2014 was that time. Things that are extremely overbought get even more extremely over bought..It is momentum. If any given trade strategy is a smaller part of the portfolio you’re less apt to do that. I haven’t really done that in the last few years but it’s something that many newer traders struggle with. When you search for reasons or search for confirming evidence to avoid adjusting in a rules based trade then you’re introducing new variables into what was a thoroughly backtested trade. It’s not the same trade now. Follow your rules. All of my trades are now non-discretionary rules based trades.
Having been through 5 years trading complex options positions through what feels like everything (short of the flash crash of 2010). I consider myself now fortunate to have suffered immensely through the following environments because it set the stage for a very strong development of resilient well diversified and non correlated trading portfolios that gives me excellent risk adjusted returns. At the time of each of these, I am sure I was in some pain but they all taught me how to risk manage and to be a resilient and careful trader:
The V bottom of 2014
The crash of Aug 2015
The prolonged bear move of Jan 2016
The extreme low vix environment of 2017 AND the subsequent highest transition VVIX move to Volmageddon
Volmageddon – Feb 2018
The no activation of hedges environment of Oct/Dec 2018
The tweet environment of Aug 2019
I am hoping this year beats the last, it actually was a very slow year in terms of trading, I had almost no structures on from September on. I had to rely on my LTI portfolio until December when I was able to get a few structures on.
I am traveling a bit this year, going to Miami today to play a poker tournament, LA in Feb, a transatlantic cruise end of April with a brief two week tour of EU again. I return for the WSOP in Jun and July and PSPC in Barcelona in August. After that I have no idea..#travelsandtrades 🙂
Here’s the risk profile of a current ATM trade that represents about 1MM in planned capital (for my use). It’s 100 1620/1580/1530s and 100 1600/1560/1510 butterflies. Fully scaled in. I’ll adjust on the upside when delta hits -250 or so and will roll the butterfly down if we exceed short strike by 30 points.
Pretty much all I have on re options trades right now. Waiting for entries. The LTI portfolio is fully entered for the month so I wait until next to rebalance.
The last two months have been quiet for me. The low vol run up meant that I had no STT trades on and I was left with just the LTI/Tactical asset portfolio along with a few ATM trades. Still at about 30% for the year and any big down move that causes a VIX 22/23 move along with some evidence of capitulation/forced selling/margin call will allow me to enter a nice STT that could catapult the return to 35-40% for year end. We’ll see if it happens.
Today’s down move got me perked up and I am keenly watching for entry opportunities. If it doesn’t come, it is what it is. We’ll keep waiting. In the meantime, I did enter some ATM trades today using the vol to get decent prices. It’ll give the portfolio some potential for a decent year end. I’d love 35% but with these opportunistic trades, profit will come in bunches. My backtest shows that 2018 would have been a 100% year if I was entering with the same parameters I have now. Today, we hit 18 vix and I was hoping for an EOD type sell off and a further weak open to eye up some opp. 484stt with elevated >22 VIX but alas we bounced into close.
The idea going forward is to do the TAA blends, some ATM blends and opportunistic STTs (I might only get 1-2 a year but they’ll boost the TAA+ATM for a solid 40% average return over time). I can post all the ATM stuff I do without regard to the IP restrictions of the group so maybe I’ll start just posting my daily updates of the ATM trades so there’s more content and commentary here. I’ve halved the PC for risk purposes but it boosts the LTI returns while we wait for STT opps. I much prefer to be patient and wait for great entries than to deal with extended down moves and vol increases with OTM type trades.
I had a busy few months traveling, which I guess was good timing with what was a “never go down” market until now. I hit up LA with my family to look at schools for my kids, then met my guy friends there and departed my family and had a guys trip that extended from LA to Denver and Miami. Good time but when combined with my last trips in September, my liver needs a good cleanse.