2023 – The Year of giving

The performance in 2023 was dictated by the portfolio’s positioning in time relative to the end of 2022 and early weeks of 2024. Something that I am still getting used to is the hard dates present for reporting (quarterly and annual). It provides a bit of stress as the trades naturally ebb and flow. I find myself always wanting to produce for those dates, but I have no control over that.

Giving to 2024: The historic rise in SPX from Nov through December, something not seen since the 1960s, an almost 18% rise in the market, took away our performance from 2023 and gave it to the first weeks of 2024. It was our worst-case scenario coming out of October, but it’s funny, that worst case scenario cost about a month of time and happens every 40 years 🙂 Had the market not moved 18% and instead anywhere below 12%, we’d have generated a fantastic end to 2023. How can I complain, an incredibly rare sized rally only cost a month of time, and that was it. I must admit, I was frustrated with the end result in 2023. But that’s irrational as it’s being held to a calendar date of something that ebbs and flows naturally. As expected from the repositioning, we had some time delay, but Peak is up about 5%-6% in the first 11 days and modeling suggests a strong 10%+ month. Peak’s returns into a static 12-month period are an inaccurate depiction of the larger shape created by the portfolio of trades momentum and ebb and flow. But all that is fine. We’re tracking something like 75% from 2022 when SPX is 0%. I hate comparing our portfolio of trades to SPX since it’s not really apples to apples but in this case why not?

Giving to 2023: We entered January fresh off an extraordinary Q4 2022 – Peak returned 59.20% gross over the 12-month period. There was a huge release of premium/theta into the end of 2022 which made for a slower Q1 2023. The accelerated release in Q4 2022 took from 2023.

As we move into the 5th year of the fund, our results from inception and a strong 5th year will set us up to be one of the highest performing funds in a 5 year period. That’s fucked.  Our 5th year will be Apr 1 2025. I have very little doubt we can finish the next 15 months strong and make a mark with some of the best 5 year audited results. I am going to work my ass off to make that happen. Our research is getting better and better as is our trade developments. Automated software is helping take what would usually take man years and doing it in man minutes.

Things with sizing are naturally starting to move to utilizing the floor. Right now, I have 4 trades being worked by the floor which now gives me time to do this blog or research or manage existing trades. Not only do we get better pricing, but we free up time.

More to come! Lots of life updates and cool experiences to post about.

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