Jan 2 2021 Trade Portfolio Updates

Didn’t get as much as I wanted done because …Holidays and distractions… enough said 🙂 Despite that, I’ve hit the ground running and I am working on creating some meta portfolio management which I mentioned in my last post. The idea is to really take advantage of diversification across strategies that aren’t correlated to create a combined time series that provides increased geometric returns by way of lower drawdowns and better compounding. What Mark Spitznagel coined as a volatility tax. We reduce that and pay less “tax”. If you have a lower return each month but you have less draw down, you compound it better than a higher more volatile strategy and so on. To me, it’s all you can do, diversify (smartly) and not just for the sake of diversification but true meaningful diversification. I wouldn’t ever just put all my eggs in one single strategy in one single week with a planned capital the size of my portfolio. There’s just too much reliance on how those specific strikes and BSH will react. Plus, it’s sorta fun having previous entries mature and act as mid bear hedges, harvesting and knowing that a single entry with bad timing is only 1/10th (well really 1/30th) the portfolio is a nice thing. It takes time to build up sure but it’s like 2.5 months. Who cares.

There’s a series of OTM (out of the money) type strategies (3 of them that I use) combined with a bearish toned ATM (at the money) trade to pick up the middle bear (non crashy moves ie Aug 2019, Oct 2018, Dec 2018, Jan 2016). Each of the OTM income portion is diversified in mostly its strikes but also the type of BSH it uses to pick up during a crash. A 488 will react differently then a 484+BSH then a HS3EZ (not saying I use those well, maybe idiosyncratic versions of one or more of those) both in it’s income production and income engine as well as its black swan hedge that it utilises. There’s some diversification, it’s not perfect but we work to reduce that imperfection by time diversification across 10 week campaigns (1/10th at a time) along with 3 additional BSH/Vol hedge type campaigns. The 3 BSH vol hedge type campaigns are factory based (ie they build up over time) and they are meant as a triple redundancy insurance towards the 4 other income strategies. But in reality, they should produce lotto like returns in a crash. One of the BSH/Vol type hedges actually generates income and helps compensate the costs of the other two. We then have as much redundancy as we possibly can both in the income strategies by way of time, strike/skew diversification, and BSH diversification built within the income strategy plus we have 3 additional BSH like stand-alone factory type strategies that should provide full assurance during a a crash and most likely a lotto return. Not sure you can do much more than that.

It’s systematic and the fact that you’ve got 10 different things to manage reduce human factors at a cost of management complexity which is my job anyways.

Speaking of which, I feel lucky to have found something that I wake up looking forward to and what will likely occupy the rest of my working life. I doubt in my life that I’ll ever pursue entrepreneurial projects again. I went through my 20s and 30s setting up some successful businesses w/ my wife and two other partners that I still manage (mostly as a board member). I give over-arching direction and make sure things are running in line with the plans set forth but there’s no day-to-day which set me free. We started the business in 2004 and I finally got out of the day-to-day around 2017. I just never liked dealing with humans and human issues in the workplace. It gets complex quickly and is often irrational and I feel just out of control when dealing with human resources. I know that’s super odd to say but maybe I can expand on it. I started a software company and I am not a software developer. Maybe that helps 🙂 I have to rely on my team to correctly advise me while making business decisions and dealing with customers demands while having an expertise that was relevant but outside the central operation of the business. Make decisions, go back to team, they tell you impossible, you know it is possible but can’t be quite sure because your experts are advising you and you fight and they end up getting it done /// rinse repeat. I always wanted my “money making” life to be me and a screen and that’s it. Very few outside “human” variables, very little reliance on anything but myself, my decision and the game environment we call the market. When something went wrong, it was something that was on me. Something that I could perhaps think my way out of. Not something where I had to rely on someone else. That was my goal and though it took like 5 years to really work that out (trading is hard…mostly because you have to meet parts of yourself that you might be unfamiliar with…and protecting yourself from yourself takes practice and time..and really just a system and recognition).

In my opinion, the attributes (besides the obvious skills) necessary for successfully trading is self reflection/humility, ability to take risks and tenacity. If you lack one of those, it ain’t going to happen. The risk taking portion has to be smart, unemotional and well thought out..with outs and with a system. One thing I’ve learned in life and I’ve seen it time and time again is that you can’t talk many people out of taking risks when they’ve become emotional about it. I can list like 10 situations which made me cringe and are very poignant lessons, some are horrible. It’s a specific type of person too. If someone decides that they are going to gamble, take a business risk, buy a stock, or whatever it is that has a possibility of changing their life trajectory, I found that it’s often very hard to talk someone out of that risk even if you give them good reasons. .Once they make an emotional decision, that’s it. But, if someone is humble and self reflective you can often advise them against and they back off and reflect. If you do take that risk, you need outs and you need to become tenacious (that’s where tenacity comes in). I took loads of risks in my 20s that I should never have, and now I have a process that protects me from making emotional decisions…I did have that tenacity though and the risks weren’t emotional though they were probably way to high a risk of ruin. Unfortunately, for success, you often really need the ability to take risk, you just can’t do it with emotional baggage. When I took those risks, I’d be like fuck ok…I’m in it now, then I’d create outs and I would literally not stop (sacrifice sleep (80 hr weeks) to make these risks work out. Stupid but tenacity got me out of jams and I learned that we often take risks for excitement, for that dopamine rush and to be very mindful of that. This is why you often can’t talk someone out of an emotional risk, they have already decided they need this rush this thing that can change their life (or destroy it) because they need to feel. When you do take a big risk, make sure you have control, several “outs” and be ready to commit your entire being to making sure you don’t fail. Tenacity, Risk-taking and Humility are the key ingredients. Look at the logo on my plane tail. Badger (Tenacious little fucks).

On to personal stuff, I got up in the air twice so far since being back (quarantine affected that). What a wild experience though, we flew to Muskoka (took 24 min from Brampton), then over to Toronto to do a fly over of the city. We asked the tower to do a direct fly over of YYZ (the busiest airspace in Canada) and was approved. This is a once in a lifetime thing to do…it was EERIE cool. Not a single flight (landing or take-off) and completely empty. Here’s some pics. I’d write a whole lot more on the blog re what it’s like to do a PPL in a Cirrus SR22 if anyone had interest. I just don’t want to bore.

Back in the plane. No better place!

Downtown core (CN Tower and Sky Dome) Direct fly over

YYZ EMPTY! Busiest airspace in Canada. Pandemic effects..

My Baby. 3-4-5 Papa Kilo.

Meta Portfolio Compositions and back in the grind!

Made my way to our new temporary home for the winter and spring. The place will be our forever home in Canada and act as our main base. We still are trying to figure out if we’re going to make our way to LA for the kids education but we’re getting tired after this last build and move so who knows. That said, I miss how easy things were in Cayman, it was like a free-for-all in terms of pretty much anything/everything re being able to just live life. I am met with blocks on everything here in Canada. Everyone seems to want to create problems. It’s bizarre. They won’t even accept my international license or cayman license and want me to start off with a learners permit, they’re having a fucking laugh. I’ll just continue to use my Cayman license, just means I can’t register my cars until I can find some Canadian insurance company that would insure me without a CAD license. I also find myself talking on the phone to customer support for hours a day for a variety of things as well. Real life sucks apparently lol.

We’re here until at least the summer and though we’re 90% going to LA, there’s a small chance we’ll fall in love with this property and stay here. Though, man, I just don’t know if I can “regular” life it here like I said above. It’s probably irrational but there’s a lot of weird feelings about raising the kids here and I mean, its fucking’ cold. Though, having the plane now gives me some pretty cool options to escape and the hangar is literally 12 min from my house. I can fly to Myrtle beach in like 3.2 hours for instance. The property is 100 acres located just 25 min from Toronto international. So the location is perfect and close to the international airport and acts as a great base to our families (we’re both from area originally and our families are here). That was the intent…have a second home near our families but it became much much more than that as the project developed and the budget increased…..

One of my best friends designed and built it same as he did for Cayman so it’s been a fun challenging project and his tenacity for efficiency, his skills and his ability to keep the project a value creation device has allowed for a valuation much higher than what was put in. So I am super happy and both projects have provided me with value. He’s been actively helping me manage investments so it might be his pièce de ré·sis·tance or swan song as he moves more towards trading. Or perhaps he continues on but treats it like a hobby or it’s a bit of both. Who knows. Here’s a few cool pictures of the property (which isn’t 100% complete yet but liveable). It’s got a VR/Sim room which will be decked out with a star wall, RGB lights, and 4 setups (our family are PC gamers…no XBOX whatever or PS whatever allowed in here!). We have a sweet swimmable hot-tub on the second deck, an infra-red sauna, several cool fireplaces, a speak-easy etc. It turned into a true chalet like experience. Our furniture hasn’t yet arrived but I think it’ll be here in 1.5 weeks. We’re making due with what we have, it’s exciting because so much is not done and we’ve got limited furniture so it’ll only get better. Fun and frustrating at the same time I guess.

Probably the only space that’s 95% completed. The entry.

The outdoor ceiling is not complete yet but it’s coming!
Void of furniture but what a view!

It’s coming…
Missing the furniture but it works!

We landed in CNC3 a few weeks ago and hangared the plane. I still need some more hours but the weather has been shit and instructor availability as well. Things happened slower then I hoped. I really wanted to come back licensed fully.

The entire break I’ve been concentrating on meta portfolio construction as a means to reduce drawdown and increase geometric returns. I’ve come up with using 3-4 OTM style trades that we talk about in the PMTT Group as a base income producer and with my own spins and each are composed of 4 different types of BSH. These are put on in campaign style with the average being about 10 weeks of campaign. This gives time diversification. So we’re now diversified in entry timing, OTM income production and BSH provision. On top of this, I combine 2 black swan type campaigns that provide additional protection over all. Then I have an aggressive harvesting style that really translates into back ratios at a variety of strikes on older maturing trades. So basically, 10 different time entries, 4 different strategies, 4 different BSH styles, a bonus 2 hedge type factories and harvesting. About as tight as you can get.

  1. 4 Types of Out-of-the-money income strategies put on across 10 weeks giving time, strike(skew) diversification
  2. 4 Types of BSH protection put on across 10 weeks giving time, strike (skew) diversification
  3. 2 bonus types of BSH factories/hedges put on in campaign style across 4-6 weeks giving skew and time diversification and 2 additional fail safe swan protections
  4. Harvesting aggressively all structures that are matured

You’re left with creating less draw down and increasing compounding returns which is equally important to the trade strategy itself. It add complexity sure, but I mean, this is all I really do now and it’s systematic. That’s a preferred method for me.

I’m finalising all the time series for each of the campaigns from 2014+ and I’ve noted that there is adequate response differences to a variety of environments and together they provide a smoothing of return. In my mind and as I mature as a trader and as I have started getting consistent results, I’m convinced that the key to success at trading for a living comes with diversification both in time and in strategy. You take 6 known alpha producers and you do 1/6th each. It helps with human factors, as you’re much more likely to follow the system/rules if it’s just some annoying small part of the portfolio not the entire thing. The options market has a funny way of causing you to draw down from the tops.. You’ll be sitting at 80% profit target and one day you’ll draw down to 50% for no reason (market hasn’t moved) and you’re becoming price fixated and often times it does preclude a vol event and from there you’re just waiting for that old 80% to come back because you think you can rely on time. It’s a fools errand not to follow the systems and rules. You’re much more likely to do what you need to do if it’s just a 1/6-1/8th portion of your portfolio.

As mentioned before, the last 6 months have been pretty much straight opportunistic ebb-flow ATM style trades taking advantage of the environment. I’ve just started implementing a systematic portfolio based on the above post and from there that’s all I’ll pretty much do.

I am back at my desk for 8 months so I hope to blog more and post interesting things the best I can.

Jul 30 2020 BWB+Fly Aug Trade Update

A nice pop in the p/l given the US is contemplating giving up on those pesky elections. Who needs them 🙂 Delta sitting comfortably at -800 and given the DTE, any moves towards -200 delta and I’ll just start peeling off the trade piece by piece removing risk as I go.

Sep BWBs are currently going for about 95c credit and Oct BWBs are going for about 2.25c. I’ve got loads of flies up in Sep so I can purchase BWBs against those but I didn’t get any in Oct yet so I’d have some exposure to downside if I get some of the Octs on. Not terrible given the deltas I’ve got built up in Sep so I’ll probably put some on today. Usually I like to start with the flies. It’s no different than just entering a rhino/bwb though which loads of people do without the fly hedge/combo.

It’d be a huge milestone to close the Aug at 500k P/L. It’ll call for some real nice champagne. But I won’t fixate on it, I’ll just manage that risk. Huge month so far and I think July is sitting at just over 7% P/L and Aug will likely be similar. Cannot complain and thankful the market keeps on giving.

Had a 30% year last year and I gather I’ll get towards 50-60% this year solely from the opportunities. The last few months, I’ve just been concentrating solely on building that long vol BSH up and trading these Rhino/BWB combos but it rarely takes much more than 30min a day, things are boring when they are producing. Many traders say you’ve made it and are barking up the right tree when you’re trading a system thus eliminating human factors and bias and subsequently the actual act of trading becomes boring. The latter part is true right now, the former isn’t based on a system per say but it will be once this environment ends.

Jul 27, 2020 – August BWB/FLY Trade Update

We ended Friday at a delta of -900 after adjustments and now sit around -1700. That shows you just how quickly negative delta you get with time even just the weekend. The position is hovering around 285k P/L so it’s seen an increase of 35k over the weekend. I’ll have to adjust the upside today and by Thursday this will be done with removals from the structure rather than additions to it. There is 25 days to expiration and I’ll aim to remove risks as we go from here until it’s a benign structure that can be expired.

Jul 24 2020 – The Big ATM trade update

Here’s an update on my big August trade that has about two weeks left in it. It’s starting to actually look like an old school ATM trade given the reduction in VIX and the lack of credits in 30 DTE or earlier trades. From March till June, credits were huge and upside risk NIL. Now as opposed to then, I actually have to use some upside adjustments aggressively.

I started adjusting for upside exposure during this little fall towards 3200. My overall deltas are sitting at -900 and I’ll close out the day at that.

Delta: -939

Theta: 21,956

Vega: -10,567

The position represents 5MM in planned capital and is sitting at 251k profit. I’ll dance this thing into Aug 7/8th and continuously remove risk and adjust. There’s a small chance for an extremely large payoff (the biggest I’ve ever seen) @ 1MM in 1 month. Reminds me of that show 2months 2million. Ridiculous but it is the environment and the opportunities. These types of trades won’t last. For now, I’ll happily let it beef up the account. I’ve got BS protection in case we have some sort of massive gap down.

Here’s the trade looking forward 7 days

Here it is where I expect to close it. It won’t look like this later as I’ll be constantly adjusting back and forth between now and then and the negative deltas will continue to build up as time passes

For a bit there, the VIX hit around 24 and it looked like the ebb and flow trade was about to get a lot harder but today we can now get a Sep BWB for $1.00 credit. So we’re still going for now 🙂 I got some on to offset the Sep position which I started with symmetric flies back at 3260-3270. I’ll be very happy if we can keep getting these conditions for the next 6 months.

In a large fall, and if we approach -400 delta, I’ll start to adjust for the downside and I’ll offset with some way OTM calendars in case of a bounce. I have two trading weeks left for Aug position which will get more and more negative delta and have more and more protection to the downside. If I am forced to adjust for downside next week, it means we went through 3150 area and to offset the nuance of continuously increasing negative deltas, I’ll use some way OTM calendars for upside protection while adjusting for the asymmetric risks on the downside.

I gotta say, I feel kinda lucky that I was also able to start the September position, I wasn’t sure I’d be getting the same opportunities with BWB pricing. Perhaps this continues on for the rest of the year re elections in Nov. Eventually I will move on to a 488 campaign, BSH factory, TAA and ATM at lower PC.

That was an interesting day!

So that was an interesting day. As expected my portfolio has fallen due to vega issues. Normally not that stressed but this is kinda a weird environment re this trade war. I am not so much stressed about any permanent draw down or loss but more so managing the rolls and dealing with fills (if we drop much further than 2825). It’ll mean that the trade will take a lot longer to get to any reasonable target. However, if we crash, I should be perfectly fine with the BSH hedges.

  1. I’ve got 115 STTs on in Jan expiration
  2. I’ve got 80 or so Dec STT but coupled with loads of bearish STT adjustments
  3. I have 14 ES shorts
  4. I have 100 puts in Sep 19 expiration at 2125
  5. 110 BSH in Oct 17 expiration (only 54 days to expiration though)
  6. 20 BSH in Oct 31 expiration
  7. 95 BSHE in Oct 31 expiration (just ratio)
  8. 30 BSH in Nov 14 expiration
  9. 30 BSHE in Nov 14 expiration (just ratio)

So I have on an estimated 195 STT, 100s of bearish STT and 285 black swan hedges of some form and 100 long puts in Sep. So should be hedged against any crash by far. Typically, 1:1 on a Aug 2015, Feb 2018 event should get you break even all said. If they activate I should be in a profitable situation. Especially given the BSHE have not yet sold the additional short just yet.

Trump tweeted “Who’s the bigger enemy Jerome Powell or President Xi?” That’s so messed up on many levels and it creates a confusing trading environment. My trades are back to about -4% or so. Which is expected with that increase in fear/vol. However, I am sorta in a really sweet spot if we should stabilise anywhere between 2750 and 2900. I really don’t know what to think re what’s going to happen here but I hope it slows down else things get a bit annoying. If it goes down hard but without a crash like trigger, it’ll get rougher before it gets good. I’ll have to initiate rolls etc and it’ll take longer to reach any reasonable P/L. If we have a sharp crash, I should be profitable as I have about 195 STTs on with a LOAD of bearish STT, BSH hedges and ES hedges. If we move around between 2750-2850 over the course of several weeks, my P/L will be fantastic.

Today: Here’s what I was doing/thinking through the past few days:

On Thursday, I got on 25 bearish STT and sold some ES shorts at about 2922-2930 area. I wasn’t loving the move to 2937 during after-hours but it wouldn’t matter since I had tons of theta and I’d get my target. The previous weeks I had put on 100 or so bearish STT and converted some over to regular STT. I have this big hodge podge mid-hedge position over the past few weeks. All in December expiration. Overall I am still negative Vega by a far amount so any increases in Vega hurt. The move from sub 16 to 21 VIX did hurt the trades as predicted.

On Friday, Before the 10am Jackson Hole events, I was building up some hedges mostly to start the massaging process through September to get my P/L up to target before my trip. The plan was to get them more negative delta and just let the market move about. I sold 8 ES which gave me -400 deltas then (this was a bit weird) I had a bunch of bearish STT trying to fill then trump tweeted, we fell to 2919 quick and then rebounded and it for some reason filled, then we went straight down. The day before that, I got another set of Bearish STT when the vix acted weird on Thursday. So yeah, pre-trump I was about -300 delta all said. When the vol kicked in and the market fell, I ended up at about +700-+900 (Sans the ES hedges). This is the effect of vega on delta. I ended up day trading the ES to build more hedge. Every bounce I sold more, and then covered at specific points and resold over and over again to build it up to -14 ES shorts. I also added in BSHE and closed some units of STT.

I did sell some short puts right at 2835 EOD for a BSH factory and the market bounced to 2857 after close, those puts were then 80c cheaper. I almost closed them but didn’t. I don’t know what to expect Sunday/Monday but I am sure we’ll test 2825 and I’ll probably wait for confirmation of a bottom before closing off my shorts. If we break 2825 I’ll have to roll some STT and ride this thing longer than I hoped. I’ll be aiming to complete those 90 shorts to make 30 more free BSH on any bounce on Monday.

So I guess we find out what happens on Sunday. I am trying to analyse my portfolio and post it here but ONE data doesn’t work on weekends…..so I can’t do anything until Monday.

I think I am pretty solidly hedged and setup. I was profitable on Wed now I am down about 4%. It’ll take some time to get it back but time is on my side unless we have a Dec style slide down that doesn’t activate BSH, then it gets more painful as we roll and let time work.

Current portfolio Risk Graph

This is my current positioning of my entire SPX STT options portfolio sans the BSH of course. This is Dec/Jan mixed together. It’s profitable now since inception and I’ll be working this trade through Sept and closing before my 40th birthday/20th Anniversary trip to Necker (ridiculous I know) but YOLO?

Will be managing it diligently and removing risk and locking in profit. When I get back it’ll just be opportunistic STTs from there on in.

Aug 21 Trade update

Man, I really wish I would post more. I get so damn behind in traveling and this just gets totally forgotten about. I am really really sick of traveling and I think I’ll probably stop most of the longer trips as the net benefits and excitement are now becoming benign. I haven’t really been home since April. It’s too much.

Here’s my gut take on the version of STT+BSH trade I do, which is tailored in methodology to my preference (higher UEL etc). Since Feb 4, 2018, the volatility regime has changed significantly. There was a loss of several large market components ie the collapse of several inverse volatility ETFs, which were a component of the market structure. They arguably amplified (and dampened) certain reactions in the pricing of options and, more importantly, out of the money (OTM) options pricing. It had a large imposing effect on how volatility works and how option pricing reacted to market moves.  Volatility indexes such as the VIX is measured by the fear reaction in options pricing. Options have varying strikes, and the reaction happens differently depending on just how far out the option strike is and the positioning of the strike in general. Picture each strike price as a bar where some of that bar is coloured grey, now pretend that grey price is the fear portion of price. Each strike’s grey bar may react with different magnitude during a market move. This is known as skew.  A strike at the money may have a different % reaction in fear than one 5% out, and so on. Skew is not predictable in any actionable sense. 

How this relates to OTM trades and corresponding BSHs?  We purchase way out of the money insurance by way of a black swan hedge, and when we have a black swan or major down move, this has been our protection. However, since the volatility regime change, these OTM options have not activated as much as they have in the past. The % moves in SPX are not corresponding to the increase in pricing in way OTM options and Vix is not spiking the same relative to the % move in SPX. Another theory I have is that previous to 2018, there was no real open interest in these way OTM strikes, it is in fact our presence in the market that’s perhaps causing an additional opposing effect on the activation of these insurance structures.  Having open interest as large as the PMTT group would or could cause a levelling effect to volatility responses just as the inverse VIX indexes provided an over-reaction. Who knows but I think I might adjust some things.

Since Feb 2018, we’ve had several large market declines since then including the Oct and Dec declines which saw several moves within the time period where VIX should have spiked to >30, but it only spiked to 20. This was confirmed again in May of 2019 and this month (Aug 2019). The market has changed. The over reactions in vol are now more efficient and muted. This is probably overall neutral. This means that the income trade portions don’t lose as much, but also the black swan counter part does not activate as much. The problem is just how much MDD you’re comfortable with. With the OTM income trades that are initiated in very low vol (12-14) and the market transitions to higher vol. Our income trades are so negative vega (volatility) that we will have a roughly 7%-10% draw down on our income structures. Basically like all VEGA/Skew change losses. Typically bear moves have a spike, and BSHs activate and we can roll both the BSH and the income trades at minimal cost. In the new regime, it appears it’s not guaranteed. This has made me change my methodology going forward as my theory is a lower overall draw down provides for much better compounding effects and overall higher return. As well, going from low vol to higher vol can have margin expansion and prevent having capital to enter the juicier opportunities.  In the most recent event, you could get close to profit target on an STT in 6 days whereas it usually takes 75 days. That’s 69 days less risk!

I’ll probably be only entering STT+BSH income trades on a large fear spike found when the market is in a forced liquidation period and when the VIX is >21.  These happen a 2-3 times a year on average, but the tests indicate that it’ll do 15- 20% on capital per trade with incredibly less risk, much less draw down potential, and minimal time in the market. Our income trade exposure goes from 365 days in market to 65-75 days. 

In the August event that just happened, I am now slightly profitable BUT I did have some temporary draw downs that reached 7% due to vol and the BSH did not activate. I saw things in the models during that event that I did not like given I initiated these in lower vol environments and the transition hurt. The issue was specifically, the night when we had touched 2790 after hours. If it had opened at 2790 and slowly went down, the draw downs (IF the BSH did not activate) would have been larger though potentially temporary as we’d roll and eventually likely recover. But we’d miss the best opportunities, and it causes fatigue as it requires a lot of work to manage. Entering in a high vol regime negates tons of % of that risk. 

Since Aug 1 to now, I am up a few % and that’s pretty damn cool. My structures a bit more matured and resilient as time passed by. I will massage these and my theta per day is currently 11k but I’ve adjusted from positive delta to more negative to lock in small profits and to minimise risks. I’ll massage this into Sep and only enter new ones in big fear spikes. I am expecting to end September at 35% for the year to date on capital.

I’ll be doing BSH factories in income and hedge format, opportunistic STT and LTI stuff as a base (12% return per year with 6.5% max draw down). Done and done.

Jun 12 – Update

Long ass 6 days of poker. I was able to finish 150th out of 8,809 in the WSOP (World Series of Poker) Millionaire maker. Pretty wild, 5 of 12 of us in the coaching group finished in the top 150 the other 4 were pro (coaches). Pretty wild result and testament to the studying. I am utterly exhausted. It’s been 12-14 hour days and there’s no chance I could play any more tournaments right now. I busted the 1k and marathon pretty quickly and entered a 1k in the Venetian which had a fantastic structure and though there was re-entry I think I made a few mistakes that was telling me I was fatigued.

Hand 1:

I’m CO, I open 56hh to 1600

BB raises 4,100 so I call given size

Flop AA7h

He bets 1/4th pot. I call

Turn 8h

He checks. I think to myself that he’s most likely missed and unlikely to have an ace given the sizings of his flop bet and he insta checks turn so I pot it (stupid) to fold out everything else in case I miss the million outs on the river. He jams…Ugh oh. Now I am forced to call w/ those million outs… I miss (no 9 or 4 or heart). I also thought I had much higher equity in the pot but I didn’t and I should have checked back and folded a missed river. Too high variance in a weaker tournament.

I should have checked behind and c/f on a miss. I forced myself into an all-in pot with a pot sized bet.

Hand 2: AA MP

I raise and BB calls

Flop is 873 rainbow

Check, I bet pot, he min click raises back to me. I jam for the remaining 25bb. My initial gut was that I was beat and I could make an exploitative fold but then thought that was nuts on a 783 board with AA. I’d mandatory call the min-raise and probably a small bet on the turn and fold rivers if he triple barrels. I wouldn’t normally jam here and it was a rec player so a min raise back is probably pretty strong. I call one all day long here against anyone else but def not jamming. Instead, I think that I can get max value out of all pockets lower than mine and any pair of 8s and jam. I am obv wrong and I end up with 30% equity against 78 two pair and missed. Way to borderline a spot to get it in. I doubt rec player min-clicks back like that with anything worse. Maybe a small pair but I block A8. He has all sets and two pairs. Meh.

Not a whole lot going on with the trades. The run-up makes things boring (though tonight it seems like we’ve had a bit of a market fall). Might make for some STT opportunities tomorrow.

I am stuck right at about 24% and I don’t have a whole lot of opportunity for big increases until I can get on more trades.

May 22 (Trade Plan)

Busted the tournament in Day 2 (200th out of 529). Ran into another damn 3 outer that crushed my stack and that was the start of the end. Exiting main hurts bad every time. I had managed to get my stack up 50% for the day. Felt good, near average. I had AQspades SB vs BTN. He raised PF in the BTN, I three bet in the SB and he called mandatory with K7s. the flop had a K on it with two spades. Check/Bet turn is an Ace, he checks I shove..he calls and hits a 7 on the river. If I had won that I’d have been above average and ready to compete for the end. I’m always super emotional after a tournament (When I bust to these ridiculous hands) after having put in hours and hours of concentration. The good side is that my game has never been better, I’ve been playing really well, I have confidence in the game I am playing and I guess eventually it’ll work out. I guess I got two day 2’s out of the trip. I busted the 1k with a BS hand as well as I previously wrote. That was 240 or so out of 1540…..One of these have to damn well connect. It’s never about the money, its all about the competition 🙂

When you’re early in the tournament you’re usually not at risk re your entire stack. It’s the day 2/3 when you need a few 80-90% EV hands to not run bad on you! I get it in with the best of it and just get run out of. I am running bad. I haven’t been able to get it in positive more than 1 time in a row deep in a tournament. Unfortunately, you need 2-3 good hands in a row to chip up and if I don’t get these I can’t win. I mean AA vs AK in 2018 vs Ryan Reiss, I had KQ on KQ8 in the barcelona to exit to 88. Or A8s vs A2o in the Barcelona main only for him to hit the 2. Blah. Any one of those 5-10% go the other way, I’d be deep running.

My trading account is hitting about 19% today which is the only positive thing today 🙂 I removed most of my Aug trades today and have dry powder. I was able to get 60 short puts sold for my factory but I wasn’t able to get on more STTs today which is annoying, well maybe not, there’s 10 min left in the day, maybe my orders will fill.

Off to Ottawa tomorrow for a comedian show and some meetings. Then I am making my way to Toronto and over to Moab for a wedding. The next tournaments will be Vegas WSOP. Let’s see how those go.