May 15 – Trade Plan

There it is. All time highs as SPX breaks 2120.  At this point, it is likely we continue upwards. If it was going to sell it would have done so on negative headlines last week (same headlines really for the past few months). There’s a ton of scary news out there and all the would-be sellers have sold. We’ve been hanging around this area for 4 months. We’ve tested 2120 umpteen times and resistance can only hold so long.  You get locked in this cycle when sidelined cash is reluctant to buy near resistance and with sellers locking in profits as it approaches the same resistance. What will happen is both these groups (the ones with cash and the ones who sold), will finally succumb and buy (once it is clearly past resistance).  So once it clearly breaks, I think we’ll have a pretty big up move towards 2150.

What am I doing with my trades? Again, not a whole lot. I only use my opinions to sway a little bit re adjsutments without breaking my rules.  My deltas are pretty far negative right now so I’ll probably just balance them a bit more in the next few days rather than waiting for a delta of -30 I’ll probably start adjusting sooner at -20.

As for the protector alpha, I am eagerly awaiting 2150 so I can roll up my long insurance. It’s doing well, up about 4-5% for the year (I levarage 6.5x so 35% or so).

 

 

 

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