May 11 – Trade Plan

With Friday’s upswing, the account has reached all time highs again.

The MICs are all all now profitable for June, which, given the crazy whipsaws, is nice to see.  I’ve had to make significant adjustments across the board. Another big whipsaw will surely start to hurt the trade a tiny bit.

The Protector Alpha is at highs as well. I think it’s up about 4% for the year.  Which is great considering its a fully hedged portfolio of equities. The hedge so far is costing nothing when comparing our overall portfolio to that of the market. Can’t complain.

I’ve been reading about Jeff Augens weekly butterfly strategies and have been backtesting them through the weekend.  I’m most interested in the extremely short duration short butterfly. It’s put on at 1PM on Friday and closed in the last half hour of trade. The results are promising. You’re taking advantage of pricing distortions in the last 30 minutes where all options theory goes out the window. It’s an extremely high volatility trade with losses in the 40-70% range and wins in the 80-120% range.  Seems to be coming out at about 10% over the last 6 months.  Will update here as I further backtest a variety of equities. So far I’ve been looking at AAPL. I’d like to get 2 years of backtesting for about 5 equities before putting on any test trades.

The past 3-4 years, all I’ve done is look for new trade ideas that fit my personal trading/risk profile. I’ve been down 100s of paths and only have found a few worthwhile. My bread and butter is the MIC and Protector. So you can say, that those are the ones that made the cut.  I’d love to have some shorter time frame trades added into the mix. I’ve been down this path (weekly butterflies) but abandoned it when I got stupid in my rookie days with AAPL credit spreads.

 

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