Since April/May, I was working on combos (known in the group as PC2 and PC3 (Patricks Combo) where the 2 represents 2 BSH and the 3 represents 3 BSH. The results from those backtests are mind bogglingly good re consistency and no-loss. Due to a silly assumption/mistake, I miscalculated the margin requirements on them and had assumed it much higher than it actually was. So instead of a 4 maybe 5% return on 65% of the account where 35% is dormant, it’s actually more like 9-10% on the 65% within 40 days in the trade. Due to this false assumption, I had put them on the back burner and went down various other rabbit holes re variations of the GA/VM trades, TTT trades and LTE STTs. I am excitedly re-examing the combos and after further testing I will put them live as the base trade for my accounts. I probably have 1-2 more weeks of testing left.
The reason I bring this up is that I am underwhelmed by the live results since January. The STTs are doing great, they have been since January. The BSHs were poorly paid off up until April and I am down on a big set of them right now. Further, I had big losses in the old Rhinos till March/April. Lately I’ve been having a really tough time paying off the other BSH funding due to the constant grind up and poor timing of “pay off” strategies after the RCs are removed. I always have 1:1 RC to BSh but that only covers half the cost. Suffice to say, its extremely slow profit lately. The trades all still like SOME volatility and some down moves and we’ve not gone down more than 2.8% this year. I got a brief taste of big profits a month or so ago on that big down day but since then its slow and grinddy and underwhelming. I think a lot of people are experiencing the same thing with STT+BSH combos. Just slow, profitable, but slow. It’s not like this with the combo trades and hence why I am very relieved that I can reinvestigate and start ramping it up. The backtest results for the last 3 years were incredible (I showed some of my friends back about 3 months ago).
All that said, I am in a mixed mood, I am meh on the slow results but I am looking forward to combo trades that work in all environments and that will cut out the issues I have with the BSH performing underwhelming to the STT(which doesn’t quite producing good returns). Along with that, I am slowly moving towards the BSH factory. The goal is to end the summer with a complete BSH factory that not only pays for itself but produces income. This would leave with with three things BSH Factory + Combo Trades + STT LTE where each one is producing income and requiring less opportunity/timing. I guess patience. But it seems like a lot of that lately.
We left Stockholm yesterday and have arrived in Gdansk. I’ve got 5 days here then we hit Poznan and Berlin.