Dec 18 – Trade Plan (Prelim)

 

The SPX is about to close about 45 points up from the open. Incredible.  That’s a 60 point swing from the overnight lows.  I am so relieved to be out of the MIC trade.  I just don’t think I can do that sort of trade any more. It’s too stressful and requires too much active management. I am now moving towards a trading portfolio that integrates  the SPY/TLT pair trade, Earnings volatility trades, Anchor portfolio, intra-day breadth trades and a Momentum portfolio.  My new focus during spare time will be on active portfolio management in these key areas and a lot less on having to be tied to the computer making adjustments and stressing about overnight moves. I’ve literally probably not slept about 5-7 nights in the past 60 days.  If it wasn’t Japan introducing QE, or China lowering interest rates, it was the Ruble and Oil crisis.  Just not healthy for me or my family.  It’s definitely not worth the 3% a month stress.

MIC

We’re now fully out of the MIC. I don’t have the final numbers yet but it was profitable.

Anchor

We’re doing great here. We weathered that downswing like a boss. The market fell 5% and we were barely affected. This is a true “sleep at night” portfolio.  I am coupling it with a few of my own tweaks

1. When market breadth is negative via sghammer.com I’ll be switching equities to ATM spy puts 4 weeks out

2. When market breadth is negative via sghammer.com I’ll be adding a TLT credit spread

This will be the anchor of our trading portfolio. It’s what I’d do if I started a fund. It’ll slightly under perform bull markets but it’ll consistently return 8-12% during bear markets. Leverage this up and you’re sitting pretty in a completely insured portfolio.

TLT/SPY Pair trade

I was able to finally enter the TLT roll today as TLT fell from 127 to 126. We’re now up on the trade by about 8k.

Momentum Trade

I haven’t entered this yet. I’ll be adding this January 1st after I do more research and prep work.

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