Everyone seems focused on the Greek situation but I don’t think any near term news will be a large market moving event. Obviously if contagion goes above and beyond expectations or if it leads to other PIGGS wanting to exit then yah, of course, but I refer to the immediate upcoming news. Everyone knows about it, everyone expects it and recent headlines aren’t really moving the markets. In 2008, most people didn’t know what (CDS and MBS) stood for and surely had no idea the risk it could pose to the financial system. That’s more of a blindside that causes down moves. With the grexit you have everyone and their mothers uncle talking about it in coffee shops. It’s priced in. Any banks with exposure to Greece have long ago hedged their risks. So we have the market at all time highs again leading into the weekend (a long weekend at that) where Greece news is expected. It looks like No one seems to care about the risks Greece poses. At least not yet.
I am surprised by TLT, it continues down (as rates increase on the long term treasuries) despite continuing downward and, for the most, part negative rates in EU. That should help keep a base in TLT and set it up for a bullish move up. I’d like to see it find some support around 127.5/128 range. Else, it’ll continue to put pressure on our overall portfolio.