So as per my post on Jan 7th
“The market bounced up to about 202.2 and I proceeded to add some insurance in the form of additional TLT equity AND credit spreads. I rolled down a few of my SPY short puts (from 207.5 to 204 and moved them a further two weeks out). I fully expect the market to test the December lows and subsequent 200 daily moving average in the next while. I used the bounce to better balance myself in the event of another down leg. “
It looks like we’re on our way to testing the Dec lows. I’d almost consider it fulfilled in after hours trading but we’ve not seen spikes in the TRIN or put-call ratio which usually marks bottoms. SPY (S&P 500 index aka the market) has been down 5 days in a row which usually calls for a bounce (if you bought at close you have nearly 90% chance of eventually making money). A spike down towards the 200 DMA and Dec Lows would give us the conditions for an oversold bounce and would likely be accompanied by the usually spike in TRIN and Put/call ratio. Ironically, It’s the most bullish case (a quick down movement to 200 DMA) for a subsequent bounce.
Our SPY/TLT trade will be pressured quite a bit here. I expect it to head towards break even as we test the 197 area. Our momentum trades are doing very well and our protector standard is down and our protector alpha is doing worse than our standard due to the OCN beat down but I consider all of those temporary.