Travels and Trades

Jun 12 (Trade Update)

It’s been a while for the trade updates. They’ll be more regular now that we’ve settled into our routines while traveling abroad. I’ve not got to put more time into work, cut out the regular beers and get back at it 🙂

I’ve closed the RUT and SPX MIC for a total gain of 6.22% combined. The SPX MIC did quite well having been closed at 7.73%, I nearly had 8.2% but the huge 25 point up move 2 days ago caused me some grief. The RUT MIC did modestly well at 5.31%. We were roughly 2/3rds RUT and 1/3rd SPX.

We’ve got about 1/4th allocation live on the July trade which is up 3.6% already! I’ve been waiting for a good entry point for the rest of the allocation but just haven’t been able to get it. We were tied into the June trade until 2-3 days ago and the market has been on a tear since. I don’t want to enter on up-days when the volatility is low. However, time is ticking as we’re about 36 days till expiry. I’ll see what today brings. We might only get half on this month but we’ll start the August trade earlier. I don’t want to enter an uncomfortable and mediocre trade just to be exposed. I’ll be looking to enter Friday, Monday and Tuesday latest if the market conditions are right. If it works out, it works out, if not we’ll go in a half position and look to enter August options earlier on a down-day.

The market is back (and stalled again) in the range of 2100/2120. I don’t have much else to say. We’re waiting for this market to get out of its range. It’s a weak time of the year but that doesn’t say much.

The protector is inching on its own all time highs. I’ve reduced some position to make way for new strategies that fit more into the MIC style (modified Butterflies and bearish butterflies with rule sets). I’ve been learning from John Locke @ SMB. These strategies are next level. His work makes my work on MIC look like I’m selling covered calls 🙂 Very excited to continue learning and backtesting these strategies (M3, Bearish Butterfly, M21 and Rock). They’re all theta based market neutral strategies (just like the MIC) but with complicated adjustments and rule sets which make them much more conservative (less risky) while providing similar returns. They are a nice way to scale diversification. I’ve finally found some ways of diversification that I am comfortable with and capitalize off what I consider myself to truly understand and am good at. I had explored diversified strategies in December/January and just couldn’t get into it (you can scroll all the way back through this blog to see what I mean). I had explored momentum strategies, SPY/TLT pair trades etc. Just not into having to rely on market conditions for success. I’ve always liked the market neutral basis of the MIC and I am very glad to have found complimenting strategies that fit within this parameter and that can hedge each other. I am especially excited to have my jaw dropped while learning off of someone else’s brilliant take on the same stuff that I’ve been doing for years.

Jun 11 (Verona)

We’ve now settled in the hilltops overlooking Verona. We sadly left Arona after having an awesome visit at the farm. Ash and I both said we’ll likely return there every year. The people that run the B&B are some of the best people I’ve ever met. I highly recommend it (www.incocco.com).

On the 8th, Ash and I made were lucky enough to be treated like VIPs at the Last Supper painting. We got up to the receptionist who pretty much was super rude to us but when we dropped the name, everyone stopped and apologized profusely and ushered a man from the back to take us in. It was wild, people were moved out of the way and we were given a completely private tour of the painting and its history. All I could think about when looking at it was one of my best friends that always calls his dinner–> supper. Drives me mad. Anyways, will remember that forever. Definitely was special.

The drive to Verona was uneventful, we left at about 12:30 and arrived at the Verona Supercharger at about 2:45pm. We charged and made our way up to the hill. The roads on the way there were super skinny and we’re avoiding using the car until we leave. The bus stops 3 min away from the house anyways.

We paid 27 EURO to go into the arena, and I think I’ve never been so ripped off in my life. It was 2 hallways filled with KISS band equipment. That’s it. Oh yeah, Kiss is playing there tonight, the entire Verona city centre is KISS fans.

On Saturday we leave for Slovenia which I am really excited about, it’ll be a longer stop (5 days) and the location looks super serene. We’ve decided that we might actually go more west on this trip (towards France/Belgium/Netherlands) and cut out time from Scandinavia. Maybe Brittany? Anyone that has recommendations please post in the comments 🙂

This is where we are parked (house is just above)

The arena, we payed 27 EUR to see! What a crock.

Emma watching me write the blog 🙂

Jun 9

We have now confirmed our upcoming itinerary. We will be departing for Verona tomorrow for three days and this will be followed by Slovenia for five days. We will then make out way to Vienna and Salzburg.

We are in Milan now to see the “last supper” painting which apparently isn’t open to the public without special appointment. On the way there we went to park at lampagno but it was full and we had not wanted to drive right into Milan. That was a bit stressful but we ended up finding some parking at a grocery store near the metro. We made our way in and saw the duomo and the castle and now wait for our appointment to see the painting.

June 8 – Next legs

we are in Arona area until Thursday at which time we will leave towards Verona for two days and Slovenia for five. After that we will do Salzburg, Vienna, and finish up Germany by July 15 and from July 15 – August 10 we will see Norway, Sweden, Finland and Denmark. From Aug 10 onwards we will be in the UK trying to sell the UK version of the Tesla before departing for the Cayman Islands (our home)

So far we’ve seen Como, Stresa, and Arona.

Today we go to the thermal spas in the alps and Tomorrow we are going to Milan and have a VIP showing of the last supper painting arranged (the owner of the B&B knows the director/Curator).

Lugged this bad boy around and decided to have once fully out of Malta and relaxed!

Lake Como

Awesome vegan burger with vegan mayo and cheese!

Kingston wanted no press/pictures. So I snuck up and took one.

Como

Jun 6 – Trip Report

From Malta to the Laplands and everywhere in-between (in a Tesla S)

The Start

Waking up at 4am, we showered and got into the car, ready for a very long and exhausting day dealing with language difficulties and stressful driving conditions. We had prudently packed the car the night before, fitting in 3 suitcases, an iMac, and several smaller items. Most of it fit in the Frunk (front trunk in electric cars) though our biggest computer and suitcase fit in the back seat along with Irina. We arrived to the Malta ferry at about 5am and though we were supposed to board, the attendant informed us that we have to pay extra for our car as it is so long. So that took up some time and annoyance. Once aboard, the 1.5 hr ferry ride was smooth, we said good bye to Malta and I got in a quick nap in preparation for the drive through Sicily.

Arrival in Sicily

Once we arrived in Sicily we had about 350km range. We made our way to the Ikea in Catania which was perfectly positioned right off the highway. Southern italy city driving in the Tesla (a very large and wide car) is a dangerous affair and one I try to avoid at all costs. We got there with about 180 km range and we topped up to about 350km. We spent about 2-3 hours in Ikea while the kids played in the play area and the Tesla charged. Charge completed at about 1pm. We left towards another charge point in Palermo. Then the S-show started. It wasn’t a public charger but rather a private one in the ENEL (think Hydro) building. It took Ash like 30 minutes re language difficulties to have the security guard open the gates and let us charge, that was no easy feat. Pulling in the car was even tougher, the maniacal parking near the gate gave us maybe 1 inch wiggle room and that required us backing up and adjusting several times (into insane traffic) all the while hoping the gate didn’t close on us. Once in, we finagled our huge car in-between some of the smallest spots and we topped it up to about 240km which was more than enough to get us to the Dorno supercharger after departing from Genoa upon arrival.

The Ferry

The ferry is an absolute hell hole. Pretty much the worst thing you can experience on a “paid for” ship experience. Our 3 bed suite was basically a queen size bet with a small couch. The smell on the ship was body odour combined with stale smoke. The condition of the ship was gross, we had a 13 inch CRT tv from the 80s in our room. The lines/waits for getting on and off were bad as well. We got there early and were first on which meant most bottom garage (i.e. last out) So we were first in and last out. We had to exit our cabin at 5pm and wait till about 8:30pm in the hallway beside the garage enjoying the wonderful smells as mentioned before.

The Drive to Arona

What a beautiful drive! We drove up to the Dorno supercharger and had a bite to eat. It took about 20min to get a charge and we departed towards Arona. The autostrada was so smooth and a great drive. The speed limit is 130 and we set the cruise at 140 and made it to the B&B at 11:15pm. The trip starts here:

Arrived in Arona

We’ve arrived to our first stop on the first leg of the 3-month trek through Europe. It all started at one of the most southern points (Malta) of Europe and will reach out to the most northern in the Swedish laplands.

Arona is one of my favorite places and it made sense to start the journey here. It’s got to be one of the most relaxing places in Europe. Can’t speak enough about it. Thanks to a fellow Tesla driver for introducing it to me when I picked the car up in Tilburg last August.

The first part was difficult. Two ferries and 40 hours later we arrived which is no easy feat with a 3 and 5 year old . More about that soon.

Departure from Malta

….And we are off !

The most stressful part of the trip is upfront. We have to board the ferry from Malta at 5am and wait about 15 hours in Sicily before boarding the GNV ferry to Genoa.

From Malta to the Laplands

We’re about to embark on a 3 month family road trip in our Tesla from one of the most southern points of Europe to one of the most northern. We’ll be using Superchargers along the way.

We leave Malta tomorrow at 5am and board the Virtu Ferry to Sicily. From Sicily we’ll disembark from Palermo aboard the GNV ferry to Genoa. Once in Genoa, we’ll make our way to a B&B in Arona and that’ll be our first real stop. From there, we’ll figure out where to next. The idea is to go to Innsbruck, but we might just head over to Lyon instead and loop back over towards Austria later. We prefer spontaneity, however, one thing is certain, we’ll be making our way up towards the northern part of Sweden and back.

The idea is go go through Northern Italy, head towards France and then back through Switzerland, Liechtenstein, Austria and through Germany (Dresden, Regensburg, Heidelberg, Berlin, Hamburg), Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Finland, and finally the UK). We are moving from Malta to Cayman Islands so we are going to try to end the leg selling the Tesla in the UK (so we can repurchase an American version in Cayman).

May 28 – Trade Plan

There’s that upside energy I mentioned in the last post. The market rebounded to the 2120 area with a big 1% move up. There were no sellers left. That’s a big hit to the bears who had all that they needed for a full blown correction. Supply and demand is the rule, and the supply dissipated and the sell off ended. The tells were in the big bearish attitude which pointed to the market having a lot of pessimism which means less long exposure and less sellers going forward into Wednesday. Once you get a big sell off like that and a rebound that surpasses many of short stops, you get a short fuelled V-rally. Again, this is especially pronounced when there just isn’t many pressured longs selling, the law of supply and demand. That’s just right now though, things change quickly, it doesn’t mean we won’t revisit the lows in the upcoming days. On Tuesday, the TRIN was over 2 and usually that means the lows will be retested in the short term.

New note: I just read Urban Carmels report and he’s got a whole report about the TRIN and Tuesday/Wednesdays action. He’s basically saying that we can expect the lows to be revisited. In 2012/2013, there were 10 instances like Tuesday with strong bounces, all led to more selling. In the last 3 years, 20 instances were TRIN spiked over 2 and 90% revised the lows. Caution is warranted for longs perhaps.

http://fat-pitch.blogspot.com/2015/05/summary-yesterday-stocks-fell-more-than.html?spref=tw

Screen Shot 2015-05-28 at 9.35.43 AM

Look at that chart, what a difficult market to trade. BIG gaps everywhere and lots of V-shaped recoveries. These past 5 months have shown a true battle of bull/bear, a market with relatively equal buying/selling pressures.

The RUT MIC stayed the same at about 4.5%. I removed about 7 1100/1120 put credit spreads for between 25c and 42c as the market rose I did this to release some margin and also to basically start taking off some of the trade. The delta is at about -20 which is a pretty big change from Tuesday when I was getting ready to adjust on the downside! I will adjust at about 1262. My hope is that we get till next week before that happens (soak up some good time decay without any adjustments). The theta on the trade is about $53 per unit. I think the best case scenario is about 6.5% for this trade.

The SPX MIC is sitting at 5%. I haven’t done anything to it in a week. The delta is at $0. Time decay at $100 per unit per day. I think best case for this trade is about 7.5-8%.

May 27 – Trade Plan

The market cracked that important 2120 area and proceeded down quickly (as expected if it broke that area) and it even briefly went through the next support at 2100 only to close at about 2104. So we’re now about 1.5% off of all-time highs but the attitude and sentiment are very bearish (much too bearish when we’re just 1.5% away from ATH) which usually lends itself to a bounce as it typically means many people are under-exposed to the market (already sold or unexposed = less sellers going forward). AAII Bullish sentiment is at 5 year lows, Stocktwits stream is quite low etc etc which usually means that the worst of the selling is likely over. We’ll probably extend a bit lower through 2100 but I’d expect up momentum soon.

My plan? I’ll give the downside on the RUT until about 30 delta to adjust and the downside on the SPX to hit 25-27 delta before adjusting. Not a whole lot of plan 🙂

I added a 1270 calendar to our RUT trade on Thursday as a slight delta adjustment for any upside risk. Other than that, there’s been no adjustments since Thursday. The MIC trade is sitting at about 4.5% which is fantastic given yesterdays waterfall decline and increased volatility. I gather without that increased volatility the trade is sitting at 5-5.5%.

The SPX trade is sitting at 4.2% and hasn’t been touched since Thursday. It’s sitting at about 7-10 points away from a downside adjustment and I’ll monitor that closely. If we can get a slight bounce and end the week anywhere between 2095-2140, we’d be sitting very nicely with the trades.

The Protector Alpha is down about 0.7% yesterday (as expected) with a decline like that. A new thread appeared on the main forum/community that I am a part of, and it is a discussion talking about new methods for the protector. I am quite excited by the developments and will start putting some thought into it.

As for the Paris trip: